2015 Caulfield Cup Tips: In-Depth Runner x Runner analysis, Suggesteted win, each tri & f4 bets

Written By (Maiden)

October 17, 2015 - 08:44 AM

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Weekend King Racing

2015
Caulfield Cup
In-Depth Analysis


Analysis by: Mitch Fenton

Final Field
$3m CAULFIELD CUP
Saturday 17 October 2015, Caulfield
Group 1 (2400m)

1. PROTECTIONIST (GER) K Lees B Avdulla (12) 58kg
2. SNOW SKY (GB) Sir M Stoute D Oliver (3) 58kg
3. FAME GAME (JPN) Y Munakata Z Purton (1) 57kg
4. OUR IVANHOWE (GER) L & A Freedman B Melham (17) 56kg
5. HOKKO BRAVE (JPN) Y Matsunaga C Williams (19) 55.5kg
6. MONGOLIAN KHAN M Baker O Bosson (9) 55kg
7. TRIP TO PARIS (IRE) E Dunlop T Berry (5) 55kg
8. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) C Waller B Shinn (21) 54.5kg
9. GRAND MARSHAL (GB) C Waller J Cassidy (6) 53.5kg
10. ROYAL DESCENT C Waller G Boss (22) 53.5kg
11. VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL (NZ) D Logan C Newitt (11) 53.5kg
12. HAURAKI J O’Shea J McDonald (14) 53kg
13. LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ) K Lees D Dunn (20) 53kg
14. RISING ROMANCE (NZ) D Hayes & T Dabernig D Lane (2) 53kg
15. MAGICOOL M Kavanagh J Winks (15) 52kg
16. GUST OF WIND (NZ) J Sargent C Schofield (13) 51kg
17. SET SQUARE C Maher K McEvoy (16) 51kg
18. MAGNAPAL T & K O’Sullivan D Yendall (18) 50kg

19e. QUEST FOR MORE (IRE) R Charlton G Schofield (8) 53.5kg
20e. COMPLACENT J O’Shea — (10) 53kg
21e. DIBAYANI (IRE) D Hayes & T Dabernig — (7) 53kg
22e. MAGIC HURRICANE (IRE) J O’Shea — (4) 52.5kg


Gear Changes

• Protectionist Winkers FIRST TIME;
• Fame Game Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME;
• Trip To Paris Winkers OFF FIRST TIME;
• Volkstok'n'barrell Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME;
• Lucia Valentina Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME;
• Quest For More Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME, Gelded;
• Dibayani Blinker Off Side On OFF FIRST TIME, Bubble Cheeker Off Side On OFF FIRST TIME, Lugging Bit AGAIN, Noseroll AGAIN, Standard Bit OFF FIRST TIME;




Race Speed Map


There are no natural speed horses in the race, so any number of runners could take up the running. The computer analysis suggests Royal Descent will lead at an average early speed. The computer analysis strongly favours the first half of the field as there won’t be suitable pace to set it up for back markers.

VERDICT: Strong bias to 1st 8 horses on settling.














1. PROTECTIONIST (GER)
K Lees B Avdulla (12) 58kg

Hasn’t been sighted in 7 runs for Kris Lees who took over the training of the horse after winning the 2014 Melbourne Cup in devastating fashion when trained out of Germany. That’s very concerning as to how well he’s adapted to the Australian lifestyle & conditions.

His sectionals last start when 13th of 15 in the Turnbull Stakes were very ordinary. 12th fastest for the last 600m, 400m & 200m.

I can’t entertain him here now at handicap conditions. An improved performance with respect to his Melbourne Cup chances wouldn’t surprise me in the least but that’s mainly because he could hardly be going any worse!

#Could scrape into top 6 or 8.




2. SNOW SKY (GB)
Sir M Stoute D Oliver (3) 58kg

One of the highest ever rated international horses to tackle our Spring carnival.

5 wins & 4 placing’s from 14 starts.

Won the listed Derby Trial Stakes over 2300m as a 3 year old beating home Hartnell who has come too Australia since with Godolphin & graduated to a Gr1 WFA winner.

Really had a great 3 year old year, winning a Gr3 2400m race and then finishing a close up 3rd in the St Leger @ Doncaster, a 2400m Gr1 race for the 3yo’s.

Resumed this season as a 4 year old in stunning fashion with back to back Group 2 wins including the prestigious Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by 4L. That race is always very hotly contested and while it’s officially only Gr2 it’s considered one of the features of the Royal Ascot carnival.
Flopped last time out, but that was on unsuitable wet ground, he’s a dry tracker through and through.

Should make own luck on the pace for 4 time race winner Damian Oliver and is drawn to land in a great spot. All class. He’s a great hope.

#Huge winning chance.




3. FAME GAME (JPN)
Y Munakata Z Purton (1) 57kg

One of the best-credentialed imports to hit our shores since internationals started attacking our 3 spring. This Japanese-based six-year-old ran an outstanding second in the G1 Tenno Sho last start behind the world class stayer Gold Ship. Has a CV superior to that of last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Admire Ratki which is worrisome for his rivals here. Has a terrific turn of foot. These Jap horses are push button they’ll sprint home over any distance, they don’t need a long wind up. They have the world’s premier stayers & staying races just like Australia has the best sprinters and sprint races.

He’ll be better again in the Melbourne Cup but for my money he’s the horse to beat here as well and is a good chance of doing the double!




#My Top pick in the race. Love his Japanese form














4. OUR IVANHOWE (GER)
L & A Freedman B Melham (17) 56kg


Dual German Group I winner purchased by Australian interests in December 2014 and transferred to stables of Anthony and Lee Freedman.
His wins in Germany include Group I Grosser Preis Von Baden (2400m) and Group I Grosser Preis Von Bayern (2400m) in November 2014.
Only raced once during the autumn in Australia over the unsuitable trip of 1600m in the Group III RA Lee Stakes at Morphettville in Adelaide.
Has had a long break to acclimatise and with the benefit of that one run during the autumn should derive plenty from that. In the right stable and lead-up runs to the Melbourne Cup should be closely monitored. Has the class to feature.

#gone well in a Japan Cup, ran in Arc. Underrated. Good each way hope.




5. HOKKO BRAVE (JPN)
Y Matsunaga C Williams (19) 55.5kg


Veteran Japanese galloper that has won up to 2600 metres. He was placed in the Group II Nikkei Sho (2500m) and Group I Tenno Sho (3200m) last year. Both of those runs were on firm going and he was beaten only by a collective two lengths.
His two starts this year returned a third and a sixth in the same races. His sixth in the Tenno Sho saw him finished within 1-1/2 lengths of fellow Japanese visitor Fame Game.
Will be trying very hard, but looks a grinder rather than a brilliant horse.
#Go well, win would surpise


6. MONGOLIAN KHAN
M Baker O Bosson (9) 55kg

New Zealander that arrived in Australia with a big boom having won the won the Group I New Zealand Derby (2400m) this year.
After his first-up run in Australia when fifth beaten 6-1/4 lengths in the Group I Rosehill Guineas (2000m) he improved noticeably when back onto a wet track to win the Group I Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick during the Championships, making him the first horse since Bonecrusher to win the New Zealand and Australian Derbies.
Then immediately spelled to be set for a Melbourne Cup campaign and sure to be right at the top of the markets. Capable in all condition’s but excels on wet tracks.
#I’m willing to risk

7. TRIP TO PARIS (IRE)
E Dunlop T Berry (5) 55kg

UK visitor prepared by Ed Dunlop, the trainer of Red Cadeaux, and appears a worthy travelling companion to the old warrior.
Has won six races in the UK most at handicap conditions but proved himself against the best stayers in the UK at the Royal Ascot carnival in June by winning the Group I Ascot Gold Cup (4000m).
Although his more popular stablemate Red Cadeaux may get all the attention, Trip To Paris isn’t to be underestimated, he’s a serious contender.

#Needs Further in this grade




8. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)
C Waller B Shinn (21) 54.5kg

Started his career in New Zealand and built and impressive record including winning the Group I Auckland Cup (3200m) in 2014.
Was then transferred to the stables of leading trainer Chris Waller for a tilt at last year’s Melbourne Cup and was given a great preparation, earning his spot in the race by winning the Group III Bart Cummings (2520m) as a short price favourite before a close-up run in the Group I Caulfield Cup (2400m) and ultimately finishing third behind Protectionist in the Melbourne Cup.
Had a great autumn campaign without a win however finished fourth in the Group I The BMW (2400m) at Rosehill, finishing two lengths behind Hartnell, and was beaten a nose in the Group I Sydney Cup (3200m) as his final run during the autumn.
Quality stayer in the right stable and sure to be a leading contender again this year.
#some chance
9. GRAND MARSHAL (GB)
C Waller J Cassidy (6) 53.5kg
UK import that arrived a couple of seasons ago for leading trainer Chris Waller.
A dour stayer that worked his way through the grades in Sydney staying races before signalling he was a future Cups horse by winning on Melbourne Cup day last year over 2800m at Flemington.
Backed that win up during the autumn with a preparation that culminated in the Group I Sydney Cup (3200m) on a bog track defeating Who Shot Thebarman, who ran third in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
A real plugging type that will stay all day.You won’t see his best until he gets up to beyond 2400m and he could be a contender, particularly on a wet track.

#Hope
10. ROYAL DESCENT
C Waller G Boss (22) 53.5kg


Tough mare returning to Melbourne after finishing fifth in the 2013 edition of the Caulfield Cup when starting second favourite.
Coming off a strong second in the Group I Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington under set weights and penalties conditions and appears to be in career best form.
Only five wins from her 29 starts but she has run second in some of Australia's biggest Group I events on several occasions and has a total runner-up tally of 10.
#honest, but not a ‘winner’


11. VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL (NZ)
D Logan C Newitt (11) 53.5kg


Yet to finish in the placings from four starts this preparation but is gradually improving. Weight-for-age conditions look beyond him at this stage of his career so will likely appreciate coming back to a handicap.
In the Group I Australian Derby (2400m) he finished a close-up third behind fellow Caulfield Cup contenders Mongolian Khan and Hauraki, both of which are high up in betting so that looks to be the right formline.
Has a versatile racing pattern which will help him at the tight-turning Caulfield track.
#not for me







12. HAURAKI
J O’Shea J McDonald (14) 53kg

Runner-up of the Australian Derby, this Godolphin galloper made a big impression when running second to stablemate Complacent in the Group II Craven Plate (2000m) at weight-for-age.
Appears to have made the necessary progression into his four-year-old season and looks a stayer of the future.
#prepared to risk him




13. LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ)
K Lees D Dunn (20) 53kg


Finished third in the 2014 Caulfield Cup after making a swooping run from back in the field. Hard to know whether she is going as well this time in after some inconclusive runs up in Sydney.
However the handicap conditions look to be in her favour as she is one of the few mares that can mix it with the boys in weight-for-age races.
Yet to win past 2000 metres but has been a touch unlucky in her attempts to win beyond that trip. Any rain would greatly enhance her chances.
#underrated, great smokey












14. RISING ROMANCE (NZ)
D Hayes & T Dabernig D Lane (2) 53kg


Former New Zealand based mare that won the 2014 Australian Oaks in fine style.
Returned in her four-year-old season and almost prevailed in a thrilling finish to the 2014 Caufield Cup. She came up with a wide barrier, went forward and it nearly paid off as she was nabbed late by Japan's Admire Rakti.
Carries the same weight this year and has to be considered a serious chance again.
#BIG hope








15. MAGICOOL
M Kavanagh J Winks (15) 52kg

Won the Group I Queensland Derby (2200m) during the Brisbane winter carnival however his four runs since returning from a let-up have been uninspiring.
Suited back to handicap conditions but still needs to lift if he's going to be figuring at the end of the 2400 metre journey.


#no hope










16. GUST OF WIND (NZ)
J Sargent C Schofield (13) 51kg


Lightly raced filly that made rapid progression in only her second preparation during the autumn.
Signalled she was a filly with above average ability when winning first-up at Scone in a 1400m maiden, showing rare acceleration to win from a near impossible position on the turn.
She graduated to winning a Hawkesbury Class One and two starts later stepped to Group I company for the first time and took out the Australian Oaks (2400m) at Randwick on a wet track.
Effective in all conditions but excels in the wet and has a turn of foot, which is a massive asset for a stayer.
Hasn't been afforded a great deal of luck in her lead-up runs so could be set for a change in fortunes here.
#not for mine



















17. SET SQUARE
C Maher K McEvoy (16) 51kg


The Victorian Oaks winner from last year looks to be ticking over well this preparation, evidenced by her third placing in the Group I Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington last start.
Will stay all day, an attribute that is sure to place her in good stead in the Caulfield Cup and gets in with no weight on her back.
Can settle up near the speed or back in the field and with even luck she will be fighting out the finish.

#happy to risk








18. MAGNAPAL
T & K O’Sullivan D Yendall (18) 50kg

Gained automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup courtesy of his win in the Group III Naturalism Stakes (2000m).
Has since finished runner-up in the Group III JRA Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley and has the lightest weight in the field with 50kg.
Could sneak a place if he runs up to his best and improves up to 2400 metres.

#not for me


19e. QUEST FOR MORE (IRE)
R Charlton G Schofield (8) 53.5kg

British-trained son of Teofilo which has finished in the first three at 12 of his last 13 starts, including a second in the Group II Goodwood Cup (3219m) behind Big Orange. Fellow Caulfield Cup contender Trip To Paris finished third in the race.
Although a winner over two miles, he has also won over 1700 metres so should be sharp enough for a Caulfield Cup. Nearly all his form has been on good tracks.
#unlikely to run









20e. COMPLACENT
J O’Shea — (10) 53kg

Injury-plagued Godolphin galloper that looks to have finally come right. He was an emphatic winner of the Group I Spring Champion Stakes as a three-year-old and was unlucky not to add the Victoria Derby to his name.
Has two wins on the board already this preparation and has an unwavering desire to win. Will be a shame if he doesn't make the final field because he will bring a great deal of class with him.
Hasn't won past 2000 metres but his breeding and racing style suggest that 2400 metres won't worry him in the slightest.


#unlikely to run

21e. DIBAYANI (IRE)
D Hayes & T Dabernig — (7) 53kg


Former British-based galloper with strong formlines, including placings behind Able Friend and Designs On Rome during his visit to Hong Kong.
Now trained in Australia with David Hayes and Tom Dabernig, the six-year-old is yet to set the world on fire in three local starts could improve sharply up to 2400 metres.
He also won a Listed King George V (2200m) in Leopardstown back in June 2013.



#unlikely to run



22e. MAGIC HURRICANE (IRE)
J O’Shea — (4) 52.5kg


Godolphin import that arrived in Australia with moderate staying form in the UK including wins at Kempton Park (2200m) and Haydock Park (2400m) in June last year.
Given a long spell, transferred to the stables of John O’Shea and created a good impression at his first Australian start when winning impressively at Randwick (1400m) in June this year.
Has since won the Group I Metropolitan (2400m) in fine style and looks a serious chance if he can make the field.

#unlikely to run
TOP 6 SELECTIONS IN ORDER
1. #3 FAME GAME
2. #2 SNOW SKY
3. #14 RISING ROMANCE
4. #13 LUCIA VALENTINA
5. #4 OUR IVANHOE
6. #5 HOKKO BRAVE



Suggested Bet:
#3 - Fame Game (Each – Way) $10.00

Saver:
#2 – Snow Sky (Each – Way) $11.00











MULTI’S
Historical Dividends to give you a ballpark figure of what type of dividend you are trying to win TO HELP WITH INVESTMENT STAKING. (From Tatts/Ubet.). We’ll work off 4 year averages when considering stake on race.

2014
F4 - $6,560.00
TRI - $878.80

2013
F4 - $10,959.00
TRI - $1,812.90

2012
F4 - $17,141.80
TRI - $1,187.40

2011
F4 - $16,721.40
TRI - $1,815.90

AVE F4: $12,845.55
AVE TRI: $1,423.75










My 2015 Caulfield Cup First 4 – Confidence Level 75%

OUTLAY: $1,728 (100%) to collect $12,845 ODDS: 7.433 to 1

1st: 2 & 3 only (2 picks)
2nd: 2, 3, 4, 5, 13, 14 (6 picks)
3rd: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 (12 picks)
4th: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 (12 picks)



My 2015 Caulfield Cup Trifecta – Confidence Level 35%

OUTLAY: $12 (100%) to collect $1,423.75 ODDS: 118.64 to 1

1st: 2 + 3 only
2nd: 2 + 3 only
3rd: 2, 3, 4, 5, 13, 14

About Mitch Fenton

Horse Racing analyst. For a full list of services available this Spring so you can win, or any other enquiries email mitch.fenton1988@gmail.com Happy Punting!