I'm discussing with my fds on one simple question. Would like to see all your views on this:

Assume in a 1200m 10 horses race. Odds are:

First Fav. @$2
Second Fav. @4

and we are focusing on Third Fav. @5

In below 3 scenarios, which one will gain the most in 100 races.

1. Lay the 3rd fav. when it missed the gate start by 2 lengths
2. Bet the 3rd fav. when it takes the lead by 1 length after 400m (1st/2nd fav. are in fair position)
3. Bet the 3rd fav. in boxseater and the leader is not a favorite.