Race 1
1. MANHATTAN AVENUE (5) 55kg $16
2. OUR VESPA (1) 56.5kg $8.50
3. KERMADEC (2) 55kg $5.50
4. AKAZADELLIA (6) 53kg $3

Comments:
Manhattan Avenue was great sticking on for second against the pattern after maintaining a long wide run. Drawn to get a good run and step up to 1600m shouldn't be an issue.
Our Vespa has group form in NZ. Happy to put a line through last run where severely checked in the guineas prelude, drawn the rail and can figure.
Kermadec looks to be one in the race with scope for significant improvement. Been slowly away both start which is the risk you take, but on both occasion has been terrific.

Betting strategy: Good betting race
Manhattan Avenue eachway
Smaller bet Our Vespa to win

Race 2
1. ABDUCTION (7) 55.5kg $3.50
2. FONTEIN RUBY (12) 57kg $3.90
3. FENWAY (1) 55kg $4.40
4. VEUVELICIOUS (5) 55.5kg $26

Comments:
Abduction was luckless last start against Muscavado. Drops 2.5kg and will thrive at the 2000m. Maps well from barrier 7. If Kermadec runs well in the first the confidence will grow. Drawn well and keen.
Fontein Ruby was like a bulldog in her last start win, looked to get headed but fought on to get the job done. Draws a little awkwardly and goes up 2kg. With even luck should be in the finish.
Fenway was slowly away at its first start but went on to score well by two lengths. Next run didn't have a great deal of luck behind Bondegier. Has plenty of scope for improvement. Drawn the rails and needs a touch of luck.

Betting strategy: great betting race
Abduction to win

Race 3
1. ALMA'S FURY (1) 57.5kg $8
2. GENERALIFE (2) 57kg $6.50
3. TADDEI TONDO (4) 54kg $51
4. WOODBINE (6) 54kg $7

Comments:
Alma's Fury was huge last start. Was wide off a fast tempo and stuck on to go down a length 4th against the pattern. From barrier 1, needs a bit of luck but the big track at Flemington should provide him his chance if good enough.
Generalife two starts back went down to Famous Seamus after having no luck whatsoever and arguably should have won that race. Famous Seamus was massive in the Manikato. Followed that with a 3rd (albeit a well beaten 3rd) to the in form Lucky Hussler after being slowly away and relegated back to 2nd last. Drawn well, if he jumps he'll be in the finish.
Taddei Tondo ran on from the back off a hot speed in its previous run against Alma's Fury to finish 0.1L from the winner Hosting. With a bit of speed in the race could figure here again from a good gate. Big price.


Betting strategy: great betting race
Alma's Fury to win
Smaller bet Generalife to win
Smaller bet Taddei Tondo eachway (25% win : 75% place)

Race 4
1. SCISSOR KICK ( 56.5kg $14
2. RICH ENUFF (10) 56.5kg $3.20
3. ELOPING (12) 54.5kg $26
4. RUBICK (1) 56.5kg $7

Comments:
Scissor Kick comes into the race with a nice freshen up which is a key reason I think he can run over the top of Rich Enuff. Last start was found to have lacerations when finishing 3L off Shooting To Win. Smashed the clock in recent trackwork and happy to play at the price.
Rich Enuff is the obvious danger. Was massive in the Caulfield Guineas when beaten by Shooting to Win. Set up a hot pace and still good enough to finish a neck second to Shooting To Win. Maybe a little flat after such a tough run?
Eloping is the one at a huge price. First up against Lanken Rupee and Angelic light and held it's own. Both went outstanding in the Manikato. Since then has got the job done in both of his two starts. I can't see anything wrong with that form and goes up $26. Overs in my book.

Betting strategy: great betting race
Scissor Kick to win
Smaller bet Eloping to win

Race 5
1. LORD VAN PERCY (6) 58kg $7
2. BIG MEMORY (10) 58kg $9
3. SIGNOFF (3) 56.5kg $2.60
4. CARAVAN ROLLS ON (1) 58kg $10

Comments:
Lord Van Percy ran second to the very well tried Melbourne Cup hope Mutual Regard prior to coming to Australia. Then ran a slashing race in the Herbert Power coming from 10th at the turn to finish 2.25L 5th to Big Memory and Signoff against the pattern. Should improve off that effort and can win with conditions to suit.
Big Memory raced to pattern last start in the Herbert Power beating Signoff 0.4L. However, hung out badly upon turning, was on the wrong foot and looked ugly but still hung on. Does jump 5kg since that race and 6kg from the Caulfield Cup where he was good late coming from near last to finish under 2L off Lucia Valentina but most in this race have to deal with significant weight increases.
Signoff had every chance of beating Big Memory in the Herbert Power in my opinion even though he was hampered after turning into the straight when Big Memory hung out. Does get a 1.5kg swing and the Magic Man on board but still think these other two have it's measure.

Betting strategy: good betting race
Lord Van Percy to win


Race 6
1. CRITERION (1) 58.5kg $5.50
2. AMRALAH (4) 59kg $10
3. BRAMBLES (9) 59kg $12
4. RISING ROMANCE (12) 56.5kg $5.5


Comments:
Criterion ran gallantly in the Cox Plate having to sustain a wide run and wasn't far from the eventual winner Adelaide in what was a blanket finish. I'm going to follow that form line with Criterion only going up a kilo on that run. Gets the rails just needs even luck.
Amralah is the watch in this race. Looking to follow in the footstep of Contributer, Admire Rakti and Adelaide, internationals that have come over and shown us how to win staying races. Ill admit I don't know much about this horse or its credentials but at $10 worth a bet if you're going I play.
Brambles and Rising Romance the best from the Caulfield Cup which is the other obvious form but do rise sharply in the weights. Rising Romance took off very early in the Caulfield Cup, but managed to hold on well for second in front of the fast finishing Lucia Valentina. In saying that, is drawn awkwardly again and will need luck or another genius ride out of the gates.
Tough race to assess.

Betting strategy: average betting race
Criterion to win
Amralah to win

Race 7
1. NOZOMI (13) 55.5kg $26
2. HAMPTON COURT (11) 55.5kg $2.60
3. BONDEIGER (1) 55.5kg $9
4. GOULDIAN (3) 55.5kg $26

Comments:
Nozomi beat Preferment last start at Geelong where over racing in the run. Prior to that won racing wide at Kyneton. Has raced at Flemington back in April where was blocked for a run. Should be fit enough and at the price I would go this way. Will need luck, but the Derby can throw up rough results.
Hampton Court the one to beat but was aided by Sweynesse and First Seal going at it a long way from home in the Champion Stakes. Does look a good reference with Sweynesse running well in the Cox Plate but not willing to dive in at the price from an awkward barrier and running the Melbourne way for the first time. Think this race is a little more open then what it looks on paper.
Bondeiger finished off brilliantly in the vase where Moonovermanhattan dictated terms. Think it will see out the 2500m, draws well.
Not overly keen in this race.

Betting strategy: average betting race
Small bet Nozomi eachway

Race 8
1st NEENA ROCK (6) 57kg $10
2nd STAR FASHION (2) 57kg $15
3rd SWEET IDEA (1) 57kg $5.50
4th CATKINS ( 57kg $7.50

Comments:
Neena Rock has done nothing wrong this prep. Draw awkwardly first two starts and rattled home over unsuitable distances. Then drew well over 1600m last start and got the job done. Maps well here and the big Flemington track suits. Could be a solid speed in this race with a few pushing forward, sits mid field and runs on.
Star Fashion's last win was terrific, 2nd last at the turn then had to sit and wait for a gap and once it got it exploded through to win. Prior to that didn't find daylight until about 250m out then stormed home to win beating Sauvito who franked the form last week.
Sweet Idea has been terrific this prep, dictated terms last start and was tough in winning. Drops 0.5kg and draws the rails. Certainly a danger.

Betting strategy: great betting race
Neena Rock to win

Race 9
1st ECLAIR BIG BANG (1) 53kg $15
2nd BIG MONEY (2) 54kg $14
3rd DEEP FIELD (12) 54kg $1.50
4th IN CAHOOTS 55.5kg (6) $13

Comments:
Not overly keen in this race. Deep field should be winning based on what we have seen but not taking $1.50.
Eclair Big Bang was very unlucky last start after being held up going down to In Cahoots by 0.8L who has form behind Chautaqua. Drops 3kg and draws the rail. Bit of luck and could give this hot pot a scare.
Big Money was 3 wide no cover last start and ran home strongly. Draws gate 2 and won't be wide this time out. Drops 1.5kg and should be ready to go 3rd up. Hasn't finished outside top 2 when 3rd up in two starts albeit in lower grade.
In Cahoot drops 4 kg last start after running on well to win. Form behind Chatauqua and should be there abouts.

Betting strategy: average betting race
Small bet Eclair Big Bang to win
Small bet Big Money to win


Best bet: ABDUCTION
Next best: SCISSOR KICK
Other bet: LORD VAN PERCY
Best value: NEENA ROCK
Other Value: MANHATTAN AVENUE

Big Quaddie:
6,8,12,13,15 / 1,7,9 /1,2,13,16/4,5,6,12

Small Quaddie
12,13/1,13/1,13,16/6,15