Ciaron Maher is hopeful Gilded Water can secure a place in the Melbourne Cup (3200m) when he lines up in Wednesday’s Geelong Cup (2400m), though he has a contingency plan in place with a nomination for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) on Friday night.

With strong winds and rain forecast for Geelong, Maher said a final decision will hinge on race-day conditions. “If the weather stays, he will run at Geelong,” he said. “He’s got no weight, looks well-weighted, and he’s in great order.”

Gilded Water, who races for His Majesty The King, must win one of the two Cup lead-ups to be assured of a start in the big one at Flemington. Both races carry a coveted ballot exemption into the Melbourne Cup.

The lightly raced stayer caught the eye with a brave third in The Bart Cummings (2500m) earlier this month after setting a strong pace. Maher has opted for a minor gear tweak, adding a norton bit, and has replaced Jamie Kah with Declan Bates for the ride.

“He’s grabbed the bit before, but I’m confident he’ll relax this time,” Maher said. “He’s got that X-factor — he’s the right horse, with no weight, and we just need a bit of luck to sneak into The Cup.”

Maher, who’s been bullish about Gilded Water’s staying potential, believes his charge is tracking perfectly for a major spring breakthrough. “He’s big, strong, and improving,” Maher said. “His only blemish was last start when he went too quick, but he’s taken good benefit from that.”

Despite Bates’ reputation as a positive jockey, Maher said the stable wasn’t committed to leading tactics. “Dec’s drawn well in four, so hopefully he doesn’t have to go out in front,” he said.

Gilded Water heads Geelong Cup markets at $2.20 ahead of Onesmoothoperator, who won the race last year and is again aiming to earn his Melbourne Cup berth.