Joe Pride is expecting firmer ground at Rosehill to play a key role in shaping the result of Saturday’s Winter Challenge (1500m), with the track conditions likely to benefit Accredited over his stablemate Estadio Mestalla.

Estadio Mestalla produced a shock at $61 when he claimed the Listed Winter Stakes on a rain-affected surface, defeating fellow Pride runner Accredited, who was game in third.

With drier conditions forecast, Pride believes Accredited is primed to turn the tables, pointing to his strong record on good-rated tracks.

“I actually think Estadio Mestalla is a better horse on top of the ground,” Pride said.

“But Accredited should improve a couple of lengths from that last run, so I’d say he’s the leading chance.”

Accredited boasts an imposing six wins from seven starts on good tracks, and his only other win came on a soft 5, reinforcing Pride’s confidence in a turnaround.

Pride conceded that the wetter surface last time may have dulled Accredited’s performance, with the conditions proving trickier than anticipated.

“It was disappointing, but the track was definitely worse than expected,” he said. “We made the decision to run early Saturday and stuck with it, but it didn’t suit him.”

In early markets, Accredited is a $4.60 favourite, while Estadio Mestalla holds a $7.50 quote as he chases back-to-back wins.

Still, Pride is optimistic that Estadio Mestalla can produce another bold showing now that he’s returned to form.

“He’s always been a consistent horse, so it was more surprising that he went off form,” Pride said. “Now that he’s back, I’d expect another strong effort.”

Pride also saddles up Reflect in the Traffic Warden @ Darley Handicap (1200m), a filly resuming after a promising debut behind talented company.

“She’s a lovely type by So You Think and should appreciate more distance later, possibly in the autumn,” Pride said.

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