Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap is shaping up to be a wide-open betting race with a field of 14 stepping out over the Caulfield mile.
Dual Group 1 winner Tofane will carry the top weight under Craig Williams, while Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr are hoping to combine for their 39th Group 1 when they line up short-priced favourite I’m Thunderstruck.
With a $1 million purse on offer, our thoughts on each runner can be found in our 2021 Toorak Handicap Preview.
Tofane
Tofane put up a fight against current Caulfield Cup favourite Incentivise last time out in the Makybe Diva, and appears ready for the step back up to the mile now with a break between runs.
Michael Moroney’s mare rattled off back-to-back Group 1 wins at Eagle Farm over the winter and has so far missed the money only once this prep.
Craig Williams knows her inside and out, she’s done some of her best racing at Caulfield, and the fact she handles all going makes her a tick in just about every box.
Superstorm
Superstorm has returned some consistent results since transferring to the Danny O’Brien stable, running fourth first-up in the PB Lawrence prior to a narrow win on the line in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley.
His latest effort saw him finish a clear third to Zaaki in the Underwood at Sandown where he stuck on well after racing wide without cover.
The son of Sebring has missed the money only once from five starts over 1600m and looks set to peak now fourth-up.
Sierra Sue
Sierra Sue is stepping back up to the mile after pipping Dice Roll right on the line to win the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes over shorter last month.
The four-year-old has been up for a while but has done well to hold her form with three wins from her last four starts.
She’s left a bit to be desired over this journey previously but her turn of foot has to be respected.
Elephant
Elephant has been a model of consistency since he arrived in Australia.
The Kiwi import opened his account at Caulfield with a comfortable win in a Benchmark 84 and was super unlucky to lose right on the line to Superstorm in the Feehan, a form-line that has since been franked.
The son of Shocking returned to the winner’s stall with a comfortable win in the Sandown Stakes where he crossed the line with plenty left to spare and looks a very real danger with some weight off his back.
Lunar Fox
Lunar Fox won the Australian Guineas over the mile at Flemington over the autumn but has struggled to find that form since returning to the races.
The son of Foxwedge was no match first-up in the Bobbie Lewis and faded late in his second run back at Sandown.
Has won previously third-up but looks unlikely.
Dice Roll
Dice Roll returned a superb effort first-up in the Sir Rupert Clarke where he just faded late to finish second to Sierra Sue.
The seven-year-old really hasn’t run a bad race since he arrived over from Hong Kong and has also done some of his best racing second-up from a spell.
If he can produce a similar finish to his first-up run, he’ll prove tough to hold out.
Harbour Views
Harbour Views has raced well at the top level in the past and isn’t out of place in a race like this.
The old boy resumed with a gutsy win over Cherry Tortoni and Ayrton at Flemington before struggling for running room when third in the Sandown Stakes.
This is a step up, but considering he hasn’t missed a place in five starts over the mile, he might be over the odds.
Quantum Mechanic
Quantum Mechanic showed real improvement two weeks ago when she made up a stack of late ground for third in the Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Her first-up run at Flemington was only plain, but she does look well-placed here as a three-time winner over the mile.
The mare by Deep Field ran third over this trip in the Queen of the Turf to cap off her autumn prep and will only be fitter for recent racing.
Aysar
Aysar returns on the quick backup following last week’s effort for sixth in a Listed race at Flemington.
The start before saw him finish only a length fourth to Sierra Sue in the Sir Rupert Clarke, and the mile does look the next logical step for him now.
The son of Deep Field is twice placed over this distance and will appreciate the big drop in weight.
Irish Flame
Irish Flame strips fitter for two runs back but looks likely to struggle here.
The Kiwi import ran well fresh in the Listed Chatauqua Stakes at The Valley but was outclassed second-up in the Sir Rupert Clarke. Likely won’t find this any easier.
I’m Thunderstruck
I’m Thunderstruck missed the start last time out in the Sir Rupert Clarke but more than made up for it with an eye-catching turn of foot between runners down the straight for third.
The gelding by Shocking is unproven over the mile but should have plenty of improvement left to come in his second run back from a freshen-up.
He’s missed the money only once from four starts here at Caulfield and is the one to beat with some soft track form to his name.
So You Assume
So You Assume made it a hat-trick last time out at The Valley where she led all the way to win the Stocks Stakes by a clear margin.
The mare by So You Think hasn’t raced at the top level before, but this looks the next logical step for her based on what she’s accomplished over the last few months, while the fact she’s a four-time winner over the mile helps.
The Shane Nichols-trained So You Assume has shown she can handle all going and will likely make up part of the speed.
Second Slip
Second Slip had his chance at a hat-trick denied three weeks ago at Baklava where he finished a clear second over the mile in the Baklava Cup.
The start before saw him win comfortably over 1400m at Morphettville, so you could argue that was the hit-out he needed between runs.
The Will Clarken-trained five-year-old opened his prep with a win at Caulfield and warrants serious consideration each-way.
Embolism
It’s been nearly a year since Embolism last won a race, but he did show plenty over the mile at Flemington earlier in the year when fourth in the Australian Guineas second-up.
He’s since resumed to run third in a Benchmark 78 at Sandown and probably would have finished closer if not for the wide gate.
The son of Shamus Award has drawn much kinder on this occasion and has scope for improvement.
Toorak Handicap Tip
11 I’m Thunderstruck at $2.60
