Royal Ascot form continues to prove a key reference for the Melbourne Cup, with several recent contenders making the leap from the English carnival to Flemington in the spring.
Trainer Willie Mullins has been especially active in targeting the Cup, going close in 2015 with Max Dynamite and more recently saddling up Vauban and Absurde. Now, he may have another pair ready to make the trip: Ethical Diamond and Sober, both fresh off standout performances at Royal Ascot.
Ethical Diamond impressed in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (2414m), racing to a new Racing And Sports peak rating of 110. Meanwhile, Sober dominated the Queen Alexandra Stakes (4355m) by five lengths, adding to a resume that includes Group 2 wins in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier and Prix Kergorlay in 2023.
Rated 118 in the Prix Kergorlay, Sober compares favourably with past Melbourne Cup winners such as Americain (116) and Protectionist (120). His performance at Ascot has clearly caught the attention of local officials.
Victoria Racing Club’s Leigh Jordan has been in contact with Mullins and confirmed the trainer’s interest in bringing both horses to the Cup.
“Ethical Diamond and Sober are both likely (chances),” Jordan said.
“Obviously with Willie, I’ve been sort of ‘what’s happening’ and he’s been giving me the thumbs up that that’s the way he wants to go.
“He’s still got a few things to do. Ethical Diamond’s not passed the ballot yet and probably wouldn’t have enough weight.
“Sober, he won at Kergorlay a couple of years ago, I don’t know whether he’s passed the ballot actually, the race he won won’t do that.
“He knows the drill about getting there. Willie’s got plenty of ammo, he’s got Absurde as well who in the same ownership as Ethical Diamond.”
French Master is another Ascot winner to watch, after the John & Thady Gosden-trained galloper ran a peak rating of 113 in winning the Copper Horse Handicap (2816m). That’s the same race won by Vauban two years earlier.
Although Gosden hasn’t had a top-three Melbourne Cup finish, his runner Muntahaa ran ninth in 2018 and Gatewood, winner of the Geelong Cup, placed 12th in 2014.
“French Master, the Wathnan (owned) horse, our track manager Liam O’Keefe is over there, he’s done a bit with Qatar and touched base with them.
“He also needs to get past the ballot and look at his rating, there’s probably still a bit more work to be done with him.
“I always think Ascot’s a bit of a fork in the road, and then really from there, trainers will start thinking about their summer period, second half of the season.
“Ascot, very much, is like a premiership for most trainers. So it’s probably from now on where you’re going to get a bit more of a guide on who’s a chance.”
Sober is currently listed at $15 in futures betting for the Melbourne Cup, while Ethical Diamond sits at $18.
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