The Group 1 Victoria Derby headlines Saturday’s program at Flemington with a capacity field of three-year-olds accepting for the $2 million feature.
Despite the wide gate, last start Neds Classic winner Gunstock remains at the top of betting, while last Saturday’s Moonee Valley Vase winner Forgot You returns on the quick backup hoping to become the sixth horse since Ethereal (2006) to do the double.
There’s a case to be made for more than a handful in this year’s Derby, and we’ve got you covered with analysis on every runner below!
Forgot You
Forgot You is one of the top chances in the 2021 Victoria Derby.
The Savabeel colt just got the job done as the short-priced favourite in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase, beating home stablemate Commander Harry with a bursting run over the final 100m.
The three-year-old has been aimed at the Derby since he won the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over the mile last month, prior to finishing three-lengths sixth to Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas.
He needs to win this race to pass the ballot for the Melbourne Cup and based on the way he finished off last Saturday, he’s more than capable of seeing out the trip.
Tutukaka
Tutukaka overcame the wide barrier to win the Geelong Classic by a clear margin last week.
The Kiwi import will need to replicate that effort after drawing barrier 12, but there’s no question he has plenty of upside as he steps up to Group 1 level for the first time.
A win looks unlikely, but a place wouldn’t surprise.
Alegron
Alegron is a very honest type that continues to improve with racing.
The Godolphin galloper got the split and finished off beautifully two back in the Gloaming Stakes, and then battled home well for third in the Spring Champion Stakes over further at Randwick.
James Cummings won the Derby five years ago with Prized Icon, who also finished third in the Spring Champion two starts prior.
The in-form Brett Pebble is the right man for the job, with the only query being a potentially rain-affected track.
Gunstock
Gunstock brings winning form into the Derby after shooting clear to win the Neds Classic in impressive fashion two weeks ago at Caulfield.
The Kiwi recorded some outstanding sectionals over the final 400m, numbers that suggest he’ll handle the extra journey on Saturday.
The three-year-old by Tavistock has risen through the grades in style throughout his short career and clearly has the right breeding to win a race like this.
Barrier 19 is the obvious concern, but it’s nothing Jye McNeil can’t handle.
Akihiro
Akihiro heads to Flemington on the quick backup following last week’s effort for fourth in the Moonee Valley Vase.
Gary Portelli’s three-year-old chased home strongly to finish two lengths off Forgot You and has so far missed the top five only once this prep.
The way he’s battled home in his last few starts suggests he’ll be there in the finish, while the fact he’s won on heavy going previously reads well with a chance of rain.
Character
Character won his maiden well at Cranbourne over the mile three back and has raced well in a couple of starts at Listed level since.
The Godolphin three-year-old finished off fairly for fourth in the Super Impose Stakes and then made up ground for second in the Geelong Classic.
Facing a stiffer challenge here and has a tricky gate to contend with.
Jungle Magnate
Jungle Magnate flashed home late for third in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase, a performance that suggested he’s going to eat up 2500m in his fourth run back.
The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr gelding was forced to get back in the run after drawing wide but should have a much kinder time of it from barrier 5 on Saturday.
The Vase has produced 10 of the last 19 Derby winners and the $21 quote certainly stands out as one of the top value plays.
Commander Harry
Commander Harry is on the quick backup following a very brave runner-up in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase where he was nabbed right on the line by stablemate Forgot You.
The son of Reliable Man is clearly a talented stayer in the making and will likely roll forward again after drawing awkwardly in barrier 15.
This distance might test him, but another place isn’t out of the question.
Hitotsu
Hitotsu looks a promising stayer in the making out of the Maher and Eustace yard.
The son of Maurice won his maiden by a clear two-length margin at Donald to kick off the spring and was far from disgraced when fifth in the Caulfield Guineas.
The Maher and Eustace team have an excellent record with their stayers, and while the step up from the mile to 2500m is the question, the team clearly feel that he is ready.
Cerberus
The Freedman-trained Cerberus broke his maiden at Morphettville two weeks ago following back-to-back placings at Bendigo and Cranbourne.
The colt by Dundeel unleashed a lethal finish after getting back behind the speed and could prove a factor again late.
Gundec
Gundec broke his maiden at Flemington two runs back prior to a last-start sixth in the Neds Classic.
Symon Wilde’s three-year-old found the line only fairly that day and would need to improve significantly to be any real factor here.
Clyde
Clyde won a Benchmark 58 at Scone last week in what was a big drop in grade following a disappointing performance in the Spring Champion Stakes.
The step up in trip shouldn’t be an issue, but he still looks outclassed at this level.
El Rocko
El Rocko is a maiden and is facing a sharp rise in grade here following last week’s effort for sixth in the Moonee Valley Vase.
He’s placed in only three of his eight starts so far and is facing a big task from the wide gate.
Raging Bull
Raging Bull won his maiden by a clear margin two starts back at Wyong.
Despite finishing sixth, he lacked any real turn of foot last time out in the Spring Champion Stakes and looks to have his work cut out from barrier 17.
Cheerful Moment
Cheerful Moment failed to make up ground in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase and looks tough to recommend based on that effort.
The step up to 2500m from an awkward alley only complicates matters.
Teewaters
Teewaters gapped his rivals by six lengths in his maiden win at Ballarat last month prior to filling the minors in the Neds Classic at Caulfield.
He showed plenty in the finish along the rail and has drawn to get a similar run in transit under Declan Bates.
The son of Dundeel has been up since July, but that only means he’s rock-hard fit and ready for a crack at 2500m.
Declan Bates should be able to find some cover behind the speed and the pair are definitely one of the better each-way plays.
Zoumon (EM)
Zoumon is two-from-three so far in his career with both wins coming on wet tracks.
He cut through the Heavy 8 at Moe last time out to win by an impressive margin and will no doubt relish any rain about on Saturday.
Sebastian the Fox (EM)
Sebastian the Fox found the line for fourth last time out in the Neds Classic where he made up some decent ground in the finish.
Could get a cheeky run along the rails if he earns a spot but it’s tough to know if he’s a 2500m horse.
Bet Now: Sebastian the Fox (EM)
King of Pharaohs (EM)
King of Pharaohs was beaten 3.5L fourth in the Geelong Classic by Tutukaka last time out.
Lindsey Smith’s stayer is facing a big step up in class here and is one of the outsiders for a reason.
Bet Now: King of Pharaohs (EM)
Spirit of Gaylard (EM)
Spirit of Gaylard was seen doing his best work late for fifth in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase.
Would need luck to go his way as the fourth emergency.
